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Forum Index > Breeding Discussion > The Statistics for Breeding
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Author Thread Post
Rosedawn
Level 60
Joined: 12/17/2012
Threads: 68
Posts: 332
Posted: 1/2/2013 at 9:13 AM Post #1
Thought some people may be interested in the statics for breeding a 4 visible creature in the least amount of generations.

Four genes in 1 generation.

Statistically speaking its actually a 1/256 chance that all 4 genes will ever all appear in a breeding with two 4 carrier creatures. You mulitply the chances, so it's a 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/4. Just to show a quick example with 2 genes so you can see it mulitplies let's say you have 2 creatures that carry a horn and spots. Their genes are Xh and Xs. Breakdown of each gene's breeding potential....
Xh * Xh Xs * Xs
XX (carries nothing), Xh, hX, (carries the horn) hh (horn shows) XX (carries nothing), Xs, sX, (carries the spots) ss (spots show).

All potential combinations....
XX XX, XX Xs, XX sX, XX ss; Xh XX, Xh Xs, Xh sX, Xh ss; hX XX, hX Xs, hX sX, hX ss; hh XX, hh Xs, hh sX, hh ss

There are 16 potential combinations but only 1 of them (the last) shows both the horn and the spots. Add another gene and you have to multiple by another 4, making it a 1/64 chance. A fourth gene makes it 1/256 different potiential combinations, only ONE of which will show all 4 genes.




Four genes in 2 generations

That's the reason my breeding projects are going as long generation as they are. (well 3rd gen at least) And if you test breed 2 of them together you'll notice just how rarely (if ever) that elusive 4 gene shows up.


The easiest way to go about revealing 4 genes in the least generations is to start with 4 starters, 2 that carry all 4 genes and then 2 that show the SAME 2 genes (I'll also show you with the opposite 2 genes but statistically its going to be the same). I'll use my Zolnixi 4 gene project as a reference.

[url=http://www.sylestia.com/view/pets/?petid=22]Anaralah[/url] and [url=http://www.sylestia.com/view/pets/?petid=851]White Knight[/url] carry Advanced Runes (A), Tri-Tails (Tr), Butterfly Wings (B) and Tailsmen(T).
Their genes are Xa, Xtr, Xb, Xt

[url=http://www.sylestia.com/view/pets/?petid=953]Tristan[/url] and [url=http://www.sylestia.com/view/pets/?petid=967]Lady Fair[/url] SHOW Tri Tails and Tailsmens.
Their genes are XX, trtr, XX, tt

Breed Anaralah and Tristan together and Lady Fair and White Knight together. Their breeding will look exactly the same.

Xa * XX, Xtr * trtr, Xb * XX, Xt * tt

The result you want is for the genes that Tristan and Lady Fair do not have to transfer over to their offspring while keeping the genes they do show visible. Each gene has a 1/2 chance of doing what I want (it's all about the right genes passing from the carrier as the one with the visible genes is guaranteed to give what I need it to) So there is a 1/16 chance the offspring will look like this:

Xa, trtr, Xb, tt

You're going to need 2 of these guys, one from Anaralah and Tristan and one from White Knight and Lady Fair. They'll need to be opposite genders. Once you have your 2nd generation breeders its time to try and get your kiddo with 4 revealed genes (which will also be a 1/16 chance)

Xa * Xa, trtr*trtr, Xb * Xb, tt * tt

Now the offspring are guaranteed to show the tri tails and the tailsmens just like their predecessors. And there is a 1/16 chance that the other 2 genes will reveal themselves. 1 additional generation but a massive difference in the chances of success.

****If you were to go about it a slightly different way the chances will still be the same and I'll show you how.

You COULD decide to do everything the same except that the 2 visible starters show the opposite genes. Let's say that Lady Fair shows Butterfly Wings and Advanced Runes while Tristan shows Tri tails and Tailsmens.

Your second generation you are still looking for the same results, that the offspring carry the 2 unshown genes, while showing the 2 revealed genes from their parent.

The new offspring will look like this.

(Offspring of Anaralah and Tristan) M- Xa, trtr, Xb, tt
(Offspring of Lady Fair and White Knight...remember in this example Lady Fair shows WINGS and RUNES) - aa, Xtr, bb, xt

When you breed these 2 offspring together you none of the genes are guaranteed (like they are with the previous example) However, instead of only having a 1/4 chance for each of the genes you need to have revealed show up you now have a 1/2 chance, it's just that it is for ALL FOUR genes, instead of just the 2 from before.

Xa * aa, trtr * Xtr, Xb * bb, tt * Xt.

1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/16.

It's the same either way statistically. Just depends if you like having slightly lower chances on the 2 you need but 2 are always guaranteed so you are only working for 2, or slightly better chances but you are working for all 4.
Edited By 23 on 1/2/2013 at 9:38 AM.
Rosedawn
Level 60
Joined: 12/17/2012
Threads: 68
Posts: 332
Posted: 1/2/2013 at 9:33 AM Post #2
3 Genes in 1 generation.


Getting 3 genes to show is far simplier than 4 and can be done in fewer generations. However it is the same 1/16 chance (I know the number gets maddening after a while lol)

If you are starting with just an enhanced essence project and haven't caught and mutated a rare in the wild (or gotten an epic/legendary/mythical pet) or something this is the easiest way to go about it. I will be using my own project with the Qitari [url=http://www.sylestia.com/view/pets/?petid=3785]Sorrow[/url] and [url=http://www.sylestia.com/view/pets/?petid=3782]Mourning [/url]

Sorrow shows a unicorn horn (hh), while carrying leopard spots(Xs) and pegasus wings.(Xw)
Mourning shows leopard spots (ss) while carrying a unicorn horn (Xh) and pegasus wings (Xw)

Breeding them together looks like this.... hh * Xh, Xs * ss, Xw * Xw.
There is a 1/2 chance that the offspring will show spots. There is a 1/2 chance the offspring will show a horn. And there is a 1/4 chance the offspring will show pegasus wings.

1/2 * 1/2 * 1/4 = 1/16. SO there is a 1/16 chance the offspring will show all 3 genes. This is the best possible way to go about it in my opinion, but statistically if you decided to guarantee a gene it would be the same chances.

If you were to try and guarantee:

Let's say that morning carries spots and has a revealed horn, like his mate Sorrow. Breeding them together NOW looks like this...

hh * hh, Xs * Xs, Xw * Xw

You are guarantted that the horn will be revealed and you now have a 1/4 chance for the spots and a 1/4 chance for the wings, making it still a 1/16 chance.

Ldd4223
Level 60
Joined: 10/12/2013
Threads: 56
Posts: 443
Posted: 1/26/2014 at 6:04 PM Post #3
What are the possibilities of 3 genes with 4 regular essences? I think I have it all figured out but wanting my math doubled check checked.

The pets are the draeyl under my stable 2... The first row are the first set of parents and the second the second set... I'm doing two sets... that eventually should be able to breed against each other.
Flute
Level 70
Joined: 1/12/2013
Threads: 340
Posts: 12,946
Posted: 1/26/2014 at 6:17 PM Post #4
What a necro...xD
This player hasn't been on for over a year.

I would suggest asking someone more knowledged on this, without going to like...the very back pages of the forum. xD;
I pinged Darkwingedangel if she can help.
Ldd4223
Level 60
Joined: 10/12/2013
Threads: 56
Posts: 443
Posted: 1/26/2014 at 6:27 PM Post #5
Thanks, I'm just trying to double check everything...before hand especially the stats. I want to fight the parents and gain experience if it will increase the stats of each of the offspring's outcome even if I won't know what their traits are going to be before hand. But, I don't want to be fighting them to the death if it won't matter or help. I also want to be sure of all my combinations, I made two sets but I think I see a possible third.
Dark
Level 75
The Hallowed
Joined: 3/9/2013
Threads: 306
Posts: 5,294
Posted: 1/26/2014 at 6:58 PM Post #6
Personally I don't bother with the statistics. They are very.... random and all over the place. I had a successful 3 vis after the second breeding. A different 3 vis project done the same way took about 25 breedings to complete. (I was using enhanced ess in both projects)


But anyway, here's the way I would stage it for the best results:

3 traits with 4 reg ess-

Female A
Female B
Male A
Male B

Female A- Traits 1 and 2
Female B- traits 2 and 3
Male A- Traits 1 and 3
Male B- Traits 2 and 3

Female A to Male B. The goal here is all carried traits 1, 2 and 3
Female B to Male A. Same goal. All 3 traits carried.

Also, in this method, we are giving ourselves a chance to have a vis on each baby.

You may need to breed the two pairs several times to attain the proper babies. Keep all females 2 traits or more. Even if it's only carried. Only keep a male if it has 1 vis 1 carried or 3 carried.

Now ideally Female A and male B will give you a 3 trait and
Female B and Male A will give you a 3 trait.
Then they would be unrelated and you could breed them together.

More than anything you are looking for a male with at least 3gp. (1 carry 1 gp. 1 vis-2 gp)

Breed him to your girls until you get a better male. 4pg or more.

Keep doing this until you reach goal.

(Remember to keep an unrelated male on hand at all times. I usually don't keep more than 3 males at a time for my projects)

Keep all girls with 2 gp to set up a decent breeding pool. As you start producing girls with more GP, pull out the lesser GP girls because after a while, they won't help you and will only pull you down. Since your only going for a 3 vis, keep any female with all 3 genes carried.


I see that even though you only asked about 4 ess, you have 8 you are using. Follow the same breeding criteria that I have listed for 4.

Technically stat wise on how long it could take you: I could figure it out but seriously, it's a lot of number crunching for something that really doesn't affect how long it will end up taking you and therefore kind of unnecessary.

The above listed method is the fastest way I know of and successfully got me to the first 6 vis nixi and bulbori in the game despite the fact that I had to figure it out first and others had been playing/ working on it longer.

And for future reference if you don't want to bother with multiple offspring and what not, you could just use 2 enhanced essence and make each with 1 vis and 2 carried (each has a different vis) and breed them together until the 3 vis is born. That's how I did the above 2 mentioned projects.


And in reference to stats: It's birth stats. Breeding doesn't seem to affect it. I've experimented with it before. Lv. 60 parents with no proficiencies or lv. up points used still gave birth to a normal stated baby.

Lv. 60 with all stats spent/ used- still gave birth to a normal stated baby.
Edited By Darkwingedangel on 1/26/2014 at 7:01 PM.
Ldd4223
Level 60
Joined: 10/12/2013
Threads: 56
Posts: 443
Posted: 1/26/2014 at 7:16 PM Post #7
Thanks, now I know for sure I'm doing this right.
 
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